Why we won’t see an iPad 3 in 2012

Despite all of the usual speculation from the tech blogs and the media alike, if you actually pay attention to what Apple has done over the past several decades, rather than to rumors, you’ll see that they follow a pattern.  In recent years I’ve used this pattern to form my own guesses for the newest Apple products, and believe it or not, I’ve usually been right.  Now, I have some predictions about the next generation of iPads.  But first, let’s review Apple’s habits using the iPhone as an example.

In 2007 Apple released the original iPhone.  This was basically a beta to test whether there was a market for the product.  Obviously there was, so the following year Apple went all-in with the release of the iPhone 3G.  From there, they released the iPhone 3GS.  Again this was approximately one year later, and it was not a hardware redesign, but rather an improvement on the original design with a few added bells and whistles.  In 2010 we got the iPhone 4.  This was a full redesign of the iPhone.  One year later, Apple released the iPhone 4S, again an improvement on the existing phone with software additions such as SIRI.  For decades, Apple has followed a similar release cycle with their computers and, with the exception of some recent deviation, the iPod.

Now, let’s apply these patterns to the iPad.  The first iPad was released in April of 2010.  Again, this device was a beta to test if there was a market for it.  Again, Apple found a huge market and the following year went all-in with the iPad 2.  This included, most notably, a hardware redesign.  Which means that this year we will not see an iPad 3.  We are more likely to see an iPad 2s, or maybe they will call it iPad HD.  Apple is unlikely to do a hardware redesign and if releases an iPad 3 without one, they will be bashed for not doing so.

With that said, here are my predictions for what we are most likely to see in the next iPad:

  • Retina display screen.
  • Better camera (probably the same one as the iPhone 4S).
  • Better video camera (1080P capable).
  • Camera features, including face detection, anti-shake, etc.
  • Full 1080P video output over HDMI
  • 1080P video rentals through iTunes
  • SIRI

Some things that we may be less likely to see, but might happen.

  • A5x processor
  • Bigger battery to support new processor.
  • Magnetometer
  • Storage Bump

Lastly let’s talk apps. I love my iPad I use it more than my home computer. But it’s missing a few things. I think it’s clear that not everyone who owns an iPad has an iPhone, a Mac, or even an iPod. Some people just have an iPad and there are a few basic apps missing that we have on the iPhone. I am hoping Apple adds these apps to the iPad with the next release.

  • Calculator
  • Stocks
  • Weather
  • Clock

Please follow me more to come.